Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 61991.517585 65591.937139 69196.135528 73072.033104 77119.411954 81218.341409 85680.445036
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 56584.675081 62108.618480 67796.859217 74083.092881 80826.424789 87833.897529 95657.288779
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 52426.579524 59241.852284 66417.646202 74517.798910 83388.306550 92788.310727 103483.569766
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 48968.800747 56714.861174 65025.008131 74573.169264 85209.466786 96662.618793 109895.969189
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 46329.833627 54831.100458 64101.975140 74918.526938 87145.763400 100492.952446 116116.792656
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 43918.890162 53014.803968 63083.009539 74993.576032 88635.709066 103709.485922 121558.873781
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 42435.886290 52139.630765 63024.410821 76060.016905 91164.717779 108033.136999 128209.053656
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 40432.638900 50542.770422 62030.747218 75952.665524 92264.604125 110667.119607 132888.557741
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 39358.708314 49968.640369 62164.655496 77101.249350 94775.023273 114892.985634 139389.528083
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 38169.239847 49189.272172 61998.418308 77845.092956 96772.265381 118500.445864 145167.118400
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 36691.653451 47992.857634 61274.246183 77869.254118 97873.030099 121027.849309 149663.924592
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 35257.577353 46788.091010 60484.349782 77762.536560 98774.145956 123288.545856 153827.932575
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 34505.975630 46410.287157 60691.234423 78867.137675 101150.171808 127336.732492 160176.962085
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 33661.712173 45882.076018 60686.355961 79693.106226 103180.383823 130977.778115 166064.443002
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 32671.511788 45128.843917 60367.974395 80102.601442 104681.107018 133972.697942 171180.602631
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 31572.485035 44194.647250 59786.127352 80150.706282 105710.869443 136381.352060 175584.034427
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 30684.730774 43499.939630 59476.712307 80514.355260 107112.658658 139234.467182 180532.173929
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 29719.847395 42669.881609 58964.172936 80593.399805 108137.851754 141613.675113 184899.534953
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 29269.493803 42500.182828 59284.266040 81722.795116 110480.184465 145625.020734 191297.538340
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 28310.618311 41620.229822 58656.251236 81609.086330 111229.625777 147648.059977 195232.893677
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 27957.571373 41541.295737 59062.183653 82825.385471 113672.707225 151793.931171 201832.772181
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 27447.238922 41229.942269 59147.386934 83612.973738 115562.185271 155249.864042 207586.635262
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 26655.447806 40507.766885 58666.226781 83638.554204 116455.382398 157443.104004 211757.373803